Step II: Mission Analysis

Step 2: Mission Analysis

          Welcome back to our second installment of how the Military Decision-Making Process (MDMP) can help your organization develop a strategic vision or plan for a major upcoming event. During this step, we’ll explain how Army organizations do the following:

• analyze the orders from a higher headquarters
• consider immediate environmental factors to create additional context
• couple that context with the higher headquarters’ orders to create information
• leverage that information to enable their commanders to make informed decisions

At the end of day, Step II boils down to one simple imperative: enable leadership to understand what their organization must accomplish and enable them to make the best decisions to achieve their objectives. To that end, time to crack open an energy drink, chow down on super-processed food that will last for 30 years and fire up a red lens flashlight. We’re fixin’ to analyze the hell out of some missions.

After we finished screaming into the abyss about the designs and wants of our higher headquarters, we began analyzing the mission to better understand what we needed to do. We also identified the variables that could prevent us from achieving our objective. Mission Analysis is a substantial effort and produces everything from detailed terrain analysis, weather data, and anticipated enemy courses of action. Depending on the Army organization’s size, these outputs range from a few paragraphs to 100-page documents with cross-reference annexes. And while some of you might be fascinated by a soil density’s effects on tracked vehicles during the monsoon season, we’ll focus on the items that are relevant to this discussion.

Step II begins with drafting a problem statement that helps your team understand what they must accomplish during a particular moment in space and time. Problem statements are typically questions that ask how an organization transitions the current circumstances into a situation that achieves a desired outcome or closes a gap. Ideally, the problem statement is limited to one or two sentences and serves as the foundation for your team’s future efforts. While entire books explain how to effectively draft problem statements, we’ve used the following format:

Next, we needed to understand the immediate environmental factors that could affect our ability to accomplish our mission. To help us understand these variables, we applied a construct with these attributes: facts, assumptions, constraints, and limitations. Some teams also add risks and mitigations as a fifth construct. This analysis helped us better understand the mission’s nuances and potential challenges that could impact our ability to achieve a desired endstate. To better understand this construct, let’s revisit our friends in Alpha Company during their preparation to establish a blocking position at Checkpoint 2A. Their mission analysis could look something like this:

• Facts: Things we know are true.
  • Example: “The Bridge 1A is destroyed.”
• Assumptions: Things we believe are true, but if they prove false, they will alter our selected course of action.
  • Example: “Bridge 1B will support tanks crossing the river and allow us to travel on Highway 202.”
• Constraints: Things we must do.
  • Example: “Every vehicle must be traveling on Highway 202 no later than 0400 tomorrow.”
• Limitations: Things that we cannot do.
  • Example: “We cannot travel on Highway 202 without turning on our headlights.”
• Risks and Mitigations: Potential consequences if a particular aspect of the plan fails and how we plan to avoid this situation.
  • Example: “If we are not traveling on Highway 202 by 0400, we will not be in position to support Bravo Company’s attack. Therefore, we will leave at 0000 to provide ample time.”

We typically used something like the following graphic to communicate our analysis to our leadership:

Another crucial component of Mission Analysis is developing a mission statement or updating the initial draft from Step I. A mission statement consists of the 5Ws (who, what, when, where, and why) and explains two things: a task and the purpose. Differently stated, the mission statement tells your subordinates what you are asking them to do will achieve a result that contributes to the entire organization’s success. An example of a mission statement looks something like this:

“Alpha Company establishes a blocking position at Checkpoint 2A on Highway 202 no later than 1000 on 18 NOV 2018 in order to protect Bravo Company’s eastern flank.”

The final, and perhaps the most critical, piece of Mission Analysis is providing updated commander’s guidance. During Step I, you gave your team planning guidance. Now, you need to provide them with guidance to conduct the actual operation influenced by the understanding developed during Step II. An effective technique from our past lives includes defining the following: your desired endstate, the key tasks for your organization (pick the most important task and call it your “decisive effort” or something to that effect), and critical information requirements that could change in your current course of action (important information that requires a phone call vice an email).

In Army Adventure World, staffs package this information into a document called Warning Order #2 which they distribute to subordinate units. We do want to reiterate that while MDMP is regimented Army practice with prescribed outputs, you can tailor the information flow and presentation to align with your internal operations. Further, this discussion describes of the tip of the iceberg of Mission Analysis, but should you wish dive deeper into the MDMP rabbit hole, the Combined Arms Center offers an excellent in-depth explanation in their MDMP Handbook (available at https://usacac.army.mil/sites/default/files/publications/15-06_0.pdf).

Poorly understanding what your team must do will compound problems over time. It’s difficult to explain why your team spent a ton of time and money performing a task that your leadership did not want or an effort that produced a thing that nobody needs. Below are some best practices to consider that could prevent those inconvenient scenarios:

Let’s conduct a brief mission analysis using a scenario relevant to dealership operations. To that end, we’ll revisit the Takata airbag recall mentioned in the previous step.

Let’s first begin with defining a problem statement that will help your team repair the gasoline-fueled death traps in which your customers are riding. Using the format defined in the previous section, your problem statement could sound something like this:

Next, you must define your facts, assumptions, constraints, limitations, and risks. Toyota issued a recall for the Takata airbag in 1999 (fact). Our dealership will make $1000 for each RO (assumption). We must replace the Takata airbag with a new airbag that meets safety certifications (constraint). We cannot replace the Takata airbag with another Takata airbag (limitation). If we do not engage 80% of our customers by the end of the quarter, we will fail to meet the OEM’s compliance standards (risk). Therefore, we will establish a goal of contacting 20 customers a day and help them schedule appointments (mitigation).

Now it’s time to define your mission statement by applying the “5Ws” construct to the Takata airbag recall effort. Ideally, you’ve sketched a draft during Step I, so the actual statement requires nothing more than some refinement. Therefore, your mission statement for the Takata airbag recall could look something like this:

Finally, you should provide your intent to describe your reasoning for asking your team to perform a certain task. Yes, you are the boss and they’ll likely do what you say regardless, but providing them with the “why” enables them to understand how their actions directly contribute to the organization’s aggregate success. Remember, your intent describes your desired endstate and delineates the priority tasks that mitigate the key risks. The format below can help you achieve that end.

That wraps our discussion on Step II of MDMP. At the conclusion of this step, you and your team have completed the analysis to issue an informed problem statement, mission statement, and leader’s intent. These three products collate into an azimuth that will lead and direct your team towards achieving the desired outcomes. It is worth mentioning that this azimuth is not concrete and or immune to change. Future steps will define contingencies and branch plans but continue to bear in mind that the last time a plan held true to its original form throughout its duration was the Denver Broncos’ Super Bowl 50 game plan. So tune in next time for our discussion on Step III: Course of Action Development.